Apple analysts and the great nine-million iPhone kerfuffle

Apple analysts and the great nine-million iPhone kerfuffle | Fortune Tech

Philip Elmer-DeWitt:

Apple on Monday announced first weekend sales of the iPhone 5S and 5C. They “topped” 9 million. Wall Street was expecting 5 to 6 million. Big surprise, egg on faces. Estimates revised. Price points raised.

Then the second-guessing began. How solid, some analysts asked, were those 9 million sales?

Apple Analysts and the Great Nine-Million iPhone Kerfuffle | John Gruber

These analysts remind me of the Apple rumor sites — when they publish something that turns out way wrong, the explanation is never that they were wrong, but that something changed after they ran the rumor.

This downplaying of the 9 million iPhones sold is just ludicrous, because it’s the same accounting Apple has used in all previous years.

Tough times for Apple analysts

Gene Munster’s iPhone launch estimates off by 5M units for the second year in a row | AppleInsider

アナリストを滅多切り・・・

900 万台売れたと聞いてイスから転げ落ちたという Gene Munster の下りがオモシロい。

When Apple announced sales of 9 million iPhones over the weekend, Munster told Bloomberg, “When I saw that 9-million number, I basically fell out of my chair.”

Tough times for Apple analysts | The Loop

Horace Dediu talks about analysts

Horace Dediu on the bad habits of Apple analysts and why Tim Cook shouldn’t be fired | The Next Web

So paradoxically, the opinion of those who are highly paid should be treated with suspicion while the opinion of those subject to peer review should be treated with respect. It brings to mind the difference between highly paid fortune tellers and pundits whose methods are obscure vs. poorly paid graduate students whose methods are open to all. Whose opinion is worth more?”

Horace Dediu talks about analysts | The Loop

The Critical Path #83: The Analyst Taxonomy | 5by5

The Next Web インタビューで引用された発言についての Dediu の説明。ジャーナリストやアナリストに対する考え方が分かって興味深い・・・

The Critical Path #83: The Analyst Taxonomy | asymco

Apple Considering Lower-Priced iPad Mini at $199-$249?

Apple Considering Lower-Priced iPad Mini at $199-$249? | Mac Rumors

Prior to iPad mini 2 launch, Apple might roll out a more affordable iPad mini to compete with Android products. To cut costs, Apple might push for lower component prices, use a more advanced process to produce the A5 processor, simplify metal casing production, remove the rear camera, cut storage to 8GB and find more component suppliers to lower costs. We think this cheaper iPad mini retail for US$199~249.

アップルが 199 〜 249 ドルの iPad mini を検討中？ | maclalala2

iPad 5 Will Be 15% Thinner, 25% Lighter And Take Less Time To Charge Than iPad 4 [Report] | Cult of Mac

KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is one of the most reliable analysts out there when it comes to predicting upcoming Apple products.

KGI凱基證券 | KGI Securities

The best and worst Apple analysts: Nine-quarter edition | maclalala:link

Ranking the analysts | maclalala:link

Ranking the analysts

Apple burned by analysts’ overheated expectations | Fortune Tech

Another way of looking at it is that Apple’s analysts did worse than the company this quarter, and the amateurs as a group did worse than the pros.

Ranking the analysts | The Loop